I decided to go with “Advanced Metrics” in the title. I could’ve used: sabermetrics, analytics, advanced stats, PER, WAR, etc. In any case, what I want to talk about is the way the advancement of statistics in sports have shaped the way we talk about the MVP award in sports.
The first time I recall this really getting talked about was 2012, the year Miggy Cabrera hit for the triple crown. The same year it was decided they were going to let Mike Trout play baseball at the major league level — “they” being the same scientists who created JJ Watt. Miguel Cabrera had just hit for the triple crown, something that hadn’t been done in decades, but the MVP award wasn’t being handed to him without contention. Why? A rookie from New Jersey put on an Angels jersey, and the only people who loved Mike Trout more than Angels fans were advanced stats nerds.
It was hard to argue against Mike Trout being the MVP. If WAR is to be regarded as an accurate stat, Trout accounted for almost 11 of the Angels wins, and Cabrera for only 7 of the Tigers wins. Numbers never lie, right, ESPN? When asking the question: who is the most valuable player?, the answer, in todays world of advanced metrics, would have to be Mike Trout. After all,what is more valuable in sports than wins?
Trout finished the season with a 10.8 WAR. Miguel Cabrera was only able to post a measly 7.2 WAR. While there were many dimensions to the MVP debate surrounding these two, in its simplest form it was debate of, “Old vs New.” The traditional stats of the triple crown (HR/RBI/AVG), pitted against the new age sabermetric stats.
Miggy won the MVP in 2012. That doesn’t change what Mike Trout’s WAR was in 2012 (that same year), and I can’t imagine it changed the minds of those who believed Trout should’ve won the award. Advanced metrics have turned the MVP into a traditional stat. How do we know who had the best average? We look at the numbers for batting average and that person wins the batting title. How do we know who was the most valuable? We look at their WAR, it is likely that player was the most valuable.
I don’t like the way this takes the fun out of the MVP award. I also can’t argue with the fact that; if their is a stat that prescribes value, then that should be used to determine which player is the most valuable.
My solution? The Hero Award.
The Hero Award
The Hero Award would be given out in addition to the MVP, not as a replacement. The Hero Award would be bestowed upon the player who straight-up owned their league that year (think 2007 Tom Brady). That player would be named NFL/MLB/NBA Hero for whatever year. Here is the criteria for being a league Hero:
- The winner should be obvious: The league Hero isn’t someone who’s statline would surprise you. I don’t want people to say “Go look at Tony Romo’s numbers then talk to me!” That is MVP fodder. The league hero bursts off the field and the stats page. They’re the player you’ll remember when thinking back on a season.
- They could also be league MVP: Just because someone wins best director, it doesn’t mean they can’t also take home best picture. If a player has a season worthy of both awards, they should collect the hardware.
- “Owning” the league means playing at an unprecedented level: This is similar to the first rule, but the stipulation is that they have owned the league by putting up crazy numbers/playing like a beast. This is to prevent players like the Derek Jeter of 2014 from winning the award. The argument certainly could be made that he owned MLB last year, but not for the reasons of a league Hero. This also restricts the awards to players. I considered making it open to anyone in the league because if Adam Silver legalizes sports gambling, Anthony Davis is going to have to average a triple double to take the award from him… Now, there’s a debate I’d enjoy.
- It’s not awarded every year: This is easily my favorite rule. Not every year deserves a Hero. This makes the award way more impressive, which I love. If it’s not obvious who dominated the league in a particular year, sorry, no Hero that year.
- Bonus points for anything resembling the Hero’s journey: If I were waiting the rules in terms of importance this would probably be at the bottom. It’s just, with an award called “Hero” it would be a mistake to not include a rule like this.
Voting would be done by the sportswriters. I have a feeling that the recent conflict between MVP winners and advanced metrics is because the stats are taking away the sportswriter’s ability to determine sports history. If a stat tells us who was the MVP, then why does the vote of the sportswriter matter?
Now, let’s look back at this past year and see who would be the Heroes of the sports world.
2014 MLB Season
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Clayton Kershaw
MLB HERO: Clayton Kershaw
When a pitcher wins the MVP award it’s usually a sign that something historic transpired. That was certainly the case with Clayton Kershaw this past summer. Kershaw threw six complete games last year en route to his 21-3 record, and he coupled that with a 1.77 ERA… I’m not sure which way makes it seem more impressive: saying a starting pitcher had a 1.77 ERA or just saying that he gave up 39 runs during nearly 200 innings pitched. Either way it’s obvious that Kershaw is the MLB Hero for the 2014 season.
Not only were his stats eye-popping, but he dominated the baseball news-cycle for the entire season. I remember sportscasters having conversations about Kershaw before the All-Star break, saying things sportscasters say before the All-Star break, “If he is able to keep this up, we could be witnessing something special.” While they all say this, we all usually know that comes with an unsaid “BUT… The season is super long and players get injured and streaks get broken and hot players cool off.” Clayton Kershaw didn’t succumb to any of this, and three months later the debate wasn’t about whether he would win the Cy Young or not, it was about whether he would win the Cy Young and the NL MVP award.
2014-15 NFL Season
NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers
NFL HERO: JJ Watt
I opened with the debate surrounding the 2012 MLB AL MVP race between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. I could easily replace a few words and switch out JJ Watt with Cabrera and Rodgers with Trout without it mattering at all.
Obviously Aaron Rodgers was the most valuable player in the NFL this past season. The stats back it up, his play backed it up, and he plays quarterback. But, If the season JJ Watt just had wasn’t enough to change the MVP from being “quarterbacks only,” I’m not sure it’s possible in this NFL for a non-quarterback to win. Obviously the quarterback is going to be more valuable than a defensive lineman. Quarterbacks touch the ball on every offensive play AND get to decide where it goes (for the most part… looks at Jay Cutler). If you did a trade “straight-up” between the Packers and the Texans involving Aaron Rogers and JJ Watt, the Packers would be worse, and the Texans would have a much weaker defense, but their record might stay the same or be slightly better.
That is MVP talk, though. “Well, if you took away Lebron the Cavs would be much worse!” Of course they would, he’s the best basketball player on the planet. That type of argument is just a more visual depiction of win shares.
JJ Watt straight-up murdered the NFL this past season. I understand that he won Defensive Player of the Year, but when mentioned in a sentence it usually gets phrased, “JJ Watt only won DPOY.” JJ Watt’s past season was the ideal Hero Award season. When I think back to the regular season, I think about how he played out of his mind every week, and won games on defense, not about Aaron Rodgers.
2014-15 NBA Season
NBA MVP*: James Harden
NBA HERO*: Russell Westbrook
It’s been an amazing year for the NBA, and the MVP race is shaping up as one of the more exciting in recent memory. There are still a few weeks left in the regular season, which means it is possible James Harden doesn’t win the MVP. Still, I have been sold on Harden as the MVP since I read Kirk Goldsberry’s article on him back in January. Steph Curry and Lebron are playing great, and there is a part of me that believes Lebron should just be the MVP until he decides he doesn’t want to be anymore; but what Harden brings to Houston and their system should be enough for him to take home the MVP.
Unlike the MVP, the NBA Hero isn’t a close call. It’s Russell Westbrook. When an NBA player starts getting talked about in sentences like, “hasn’t been done since Michael Jordan in 1989.” It should be clear that they are doing something special.
Plus, Westbrook earns major bonus points for his story arch. This is a player who, only a few short years ago, was the most scrutinized second fiddle in the NBA. Now there are conversations about what OKC should do when Kevin Durant is healthy. This season is playing out like a movie for Westbrook.
The season starts with Durant out with an injury, it’s Russell’s time to shine. A few games in, the Thunder are faltering, Westbrook goes down with an injury. Westbrook comes back, Durant comes back, time to grab that eight seed. Durant reinjures his foot. Just Russell again. Are the Thunder done? Westbrook puts the team on his back. Goes off for triple-double after triple double. He breaks his face. Gets surgery and missed one game. First game back, triple-double: 49pts, 15reb, 10ast… OKC is on the bubble. How does the third act play out?
When Russell Westbrook gets brought up in the MVP debate, his insane run gets pointed at, but it’s followed up by mentioning how the Thunder might not even make the playoffs. In the MVP race, it’s important if you are able to help your team make the playoffs, especially in basketball. But the NBA Hero, doesn’t need to be the MVP, he just needs to be the Hero, and Westbrook is the obvious choice. He might not be the first person brought up when you’re trying to figure out who should be the NBA Hero. You might think of Steph, Harden, Lebron, and Anthony Davis, but as soon as you land on Westbrook the decision is easy.
2012 MLB Season
I don’t want anyone to think I am attacking advanced stats. I am huge fan of the way they are able to help us determine value. They paint a detailed picture of player/team performance, and push the evolution of sports into exciting areas — just look at the Houston Rockets.
I just don’t want exceptional years of player performance to go unnoticed or under-rewarded because that’s what the numbers dictate. I know this isn’t always the case, but we are still in the infancy of advanced stats in the mainstream media. There’s probably a thirteen year old sitting in his room right now who will be able to figure out exactly how many wins Jabari Parker will account for during his entire NBA career.
If we get ahead of the curve, everyone wins. The stats junkies are validated when James Harden wins an MVP, and the traditionalists have their Heroes, and that is important. Most thirteen year olds aren’t in their room scouring Baseball-Reference.com, they’re playing NBA 2K while posters of their Heroes hang on the walls. While heroes get remembered but legends never die, I can’t help but think, is there a difference?
AL MVP: Mike Trout
MLB Hero: Miguel Cabrera
Lemmen's Nursery 